Deep Dive: Prediction Markets Before the 2024 election, prediction markets were primarily a niche curiosity with weekly trading volumes hovering around $50 million. Today, prediction markets have over $6 billion in weekly trading volume: more than 100x in just over 24 months.…↗

How we run a code factory at Toyo We now write code in a way that is completely different to how we worked six months ago. Now building is cheap. This warrants a rethink of engineer and product development processes. All the planning we used to do—backlog planning, design—was…↗

Why we banned React's useEffect At Factory, we have a simple, yet important frontend rule: no useEffect. Yes, it sounds strict. In practice, it has made our codebase easier to reason about and much harder to accidentally break. What we mean by "banned"? We never call useEffect…↗

Codex, File My Taxes. Make No Mistakes. I asked an accountant and an AI agent to prepare my 2025 tax return. Only one succeeded. Last year I [predicted](x.com/corbtt/status/1991953280373797112) that the best coding agent of early 2026 would be able to file my taxes autonomously…↗

Developer to Fleet Commander The top 5% to 10% of builders are now 3 to 5 times more productive than they were a year ago. The median builder is up maybe 10% to 20%. --- In the past few weeks, I've spoken with several founders about how much AI coding tools are creating enormo…↗

The Execution Layer LLMs are in desperate need of an execution layer made for them to run tool calls in. A year ago LLMs were making direct calls to tools, we found that it flooded their context with irrelevant information to them and found incredibly poor performance. Then we…↗

Karpathy's Autonomous AI Can Make You 701x Faster. It's The Future of Business. Most marketing teams run ~30 experiments a year. The next generation will run 36,500+. Easily. They'll run experiments while they sleep. Current marketing teams run 20-30 experiments a year. Maybe…↗

Can Alpha School Succeed Where Success Academy Stalled? I’m sitting a few feet from one of the nicest billionaires I’ve ever met. He wants to change how every kid in America learns. Joe Liemandt is wearing a black ALPHA baseball cap. Expensive yet understated polo. He’s smiling…↗

Building for trillions of agents Over the past few months, something big has started to happen with agents. Near the tail end of last year, we began to reach the point where coding agents were able to complete much longer running tasks, and didn’t require as much hand-holding th…↗

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Lessons from Building Claude Code: Prompt Caching Is Everything It is often said in engineering that "Cache Rules Everything Around Me", and the same rule holds for agents. Long running agentic products like Claude Code are made feasible by prompt caching which allows us to reu…↗

Skill Graphs > SKILL.md people underestimate the power of structured knowledge. it enables entirely new kinds of applications right now people write skills that capture one aspect of something. a skill for summarizing, a skill for code review and so on. (often) one file with on…↗

Your company is not a filesystem I worked at Dropbox in 2014, pre-IPO. My job was to make your files more collaborative. We couldn't dogfood our products, because the entire company ran on Google Docs. The internal narrative was: desktop software is over. Files are over. The f…↗

I gave OpenClaw a name, its own computer, and told it to figure things out. Here's the 32-hour recap I didn't give an AI agent access to my computer. I didn't give it access to my email, GitHub, browser sessions, or files. I gave it its own computer, accounts, and workspace. A…↗

The vibe coding trap There's a popular narrative on X right now that AI can build software so quickly and cheaply that SaaS is dead (or will be soon). Why pay for Linear when AI can build a project tracker in an afternoon? Why pay Stripe $30k/year when you can vibe code your ow…↗

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Who is Cowork for, exactly? I've been playing with [Cowork](claude.com/blog/cowork-research-preview) today, and I have thoughts. # First: what is Cowork? Pitched as "Claude Code" for non-technical tasks or knowledge work. [Embedded Tweet: x.com/i/status/2010805682434666759]…↗

How to code better with AI using this one weird trick We’re living through a really unique moment in software. All at once, two big things are happening: 1. Experienced engineers are re-evaluating their tools & workflows. 2. A huge wave of newcomers is learning how to build, i…↗

So I asked Gemini 3 to turn my tweets into instagram slides. It created a template in HTML.↗